Surprising Rookie of the Year Odds for Malik Nabers heading into New York Giants OTAs

As organized team activities (OTAs) kick off for the New York Giants this week one thing is going to become abundantly clear: Malik Nabers is going to be the focal point of the offense.

The Giants spent their sixth overall 2024 NFL Draft pick on him believing he brings game-changing talent according to general manager Joe Schoen. Darren Waller could retire at any moment. Darius Slayton has been fairly consistent for the Giants, but isn't a strong lead wide receiver. The team--and more specifically, Daniel Jones--is clearly going to have to lean on Nabers heavily to find success this year.

And despite that fact, most sports books have Nabers as a complete long shot to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2024. Why is that? And can he realistically win one of the most prestigious awards in professional football this season?

Recent Offensive Offensive Player of the Year Winners

Many fans often believe the "offensive player of the year" awards have simply become "best quarterback" competitions, but that's surprisingly untrue. While it is true that four quarterbacks have won NFL Offensive Player of the Year in the last eight years, it's also true that seven non-quarterbacks have won the award in the last 11.

C.J. Stroud of course won it last year after his incredible 4100-yard, 23-touchdown rookie year. And yes, Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, and Dak Prescott all won it in their respective impressive debut seasons. However, we've also seen wide receiver stars like Garrett Wilson (2022), Ja'Marr Chase (2021), and Odell Beckham Jr. (2014) win it at receiver as well. All the other major recent winners were running backs, but given how the league is trending in positional usage that's becoming more difficult.

Given the talent distribution of the 2024 rookie class, this season's winner is almost assuredly going to be a wide receiver or quarterback. So where does Malik Nabers sit in terms of odds to win it?

Top Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds

The major contenders to win Offensive Rookie of the Year aren't surprising, but the significant drop off after the top option certainly is (odds via FanDuel):

• Caleb Williams: +150 (40% probability)
• Jayden Daniels: +600 (14.29%)
• Marvin Harrison: +700 (12.5%)
• Malik Nabers: +1400 (6.67%)
• J.J. McCarthy: +1400 (6.67%)
• Xavier Worthy: +2000 (4.76%)
• Bo Nix: +2000 (4.76%)
• Drake Maye: +2000 (4.76%)

Caleb Williams certainly may be the most likely rookie to win the award, but sports books everywhere are charging users way above what is likely "true" probability to make that bet. The two other most popular options to win it in Jayden Daniels and Marvin Harrison Jr. are also likely overpriced given any kind of true probability calculation, but after that things get more fair and interesting.

Malik Nabers at +1400 (would pay out $150 on a $10 bet) makes for some really substantial value. Sports books are saying that he barely has half the odds to win when compared to Marvin Harrison Jr. even though they're in similar situations opportunity-wise. And the third most likely wide receiver is a late first round pick in Xavier Worthy who is going to be competing with Travis Kelce for targets. It's quite clear where the best bet is with wide receivers.

When we look at the fact that two wide receivers have won NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year in the last three years, then compare Nabers' odds to all other rookies, his +1400 becomes even more obviously the best bet.